Entry 1105, on 2009-10-23 at 21:46:25 (Rating 4, Skepticism)
Some people probably think I'm terribly naive to reject the idea of global conspiracies. After all, if big business, governments, pressure groups, or terrorist organisations have indulged in a conspiracy one of their primary objectives would be to keep it secret. People like me refusing to believe in the conspiracy are just playing into their hands aren't they?
The problem is that its too easy to stray into the area of paranoia. If you believe in a conspiracy then secrecy is usually a major aspect of it. If evidence keeps appearing to show the conspiracy isn't true couldn't that be construed as evidence that the conspirators are successful in keeping their activities secret?
No doubt you will have detected the flaw in this logic. The more evidence against the conspiracy the more believers want to believe it because subterfuge is an inherent characteristic of the conspiracy. The problem then becomes: what could be used as evidence against the conspiracy? If more evidence for it supports it and lack of evidence or evidence against it supports it then it can never be denied. If that isn't paranoia then at least its a terrible application of logic.
The reason I have talked about conspiracies here is because its usually the only way people who believe in theories which contradict the mainstream can justify their beliefs. Specifically, it is often used by global warming deniers to support their belief that global warming isn't happening because almost all experts, scientists, and governments do take it seriously. Of course the same criticism applies to believers in 9/11 conspiracies, creationism, and UFO visits.
I have recently been debating global warming with a friend and I have asked him to explain why the majority of experts believe that anthropogenic global climate change is real. He has so far refused to answer the question because he knows that the only explanation is a global conspiracy and relying on that does significantly weaken his argument.
But is there really a consensus? Well yes, there is actually. I admit that it is possible to carefully select statements which seem to counter the idea but looking at the big picture its obvious that practically everyone who has a credible opinion agrees that global warming is real. Surely they can't be all wrong so that just leaves deliberate deception on a huge scale: in other words a conspiracy.
Here's a statement from Wikipedia regarding the consensus: A survey published in 2009 by Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmerman of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago of 3146 Earth Scientists found that 97% of active climatologists agree that human activity is causing global warming. A summary from the survey states that: “It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes."
To be a global warming denier you must believe in a global conspiracy because the idea that all those experts could be just wrong is ridiculous. But most conspiracies are also ridiculous. No wonder the deniers don't want to answer this question!
Comment 1 by Anonymous on 2009-10-30 at 12:02:12:
You write off the idea that the global warming supporters could be wrong too quickly. There have been many times in the past when science has been wrong and its looking more likely all the time that it is this time too. If they are wrong then no conspiracy is needed. What do you say to that?
Comment 2 by OJB on 2009-10-31 at 15:03:15:
Actually I based my assessment of global warming on the fact that there have been so few significant occasions in the past when science has been wrong about anything. If you can give me an instance when science (in its modern form) has had such a consensus yet still been wrong about a similar type of issue I would be interested to hear it.
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