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I Predict Failure!

Entry 1620, on 2014-01-20 at 12:08:05 (Rating 4, Skepticism)

Now that we are moving into a new year it is time to do what all good skeptics do at this time: have a look at how accurate the psychics were with their predictions for last year. Before I do I should say that I know that people who support pseudoscientific nonsense like psychics will probably find a few lucky guesses or sufficiently vague predictions which were true and conveniently ignore the vast number which were false. I am more interested in the interesting predictions which would be unlikely to be true by chance alone (without the need for any paranormal ability). So let's get started...

Here's one by LaMont Hamilton which would be a remarkable success if it was true: "A mind-to-mind telepathic telecommunication device will be developed for the mentally ill to help people communicate better." Yeah, I don't remember hearing about that one and if it did exist it would be quite exciting, I think.

Let's try an easier prediction for the same person: "Prince William and Kate will have a baby girl, whom many will believe is the reincarnation of Princess Diana." Well he had a (roughly) 50/50 chance of getting this one right and he was still wrong! Epic fail, I would say, without even getting started on the reincarnation stuff!

Let's try another psychic, Vicki Monroe, trying a prediction which might be a reasonable guess anyway: "Congress will deal with gun control: Automatic weapons and high-powered rifles, semi-automatics that belong in war zones will be removed, and only used in situations where they are absolutely necessary." Yeah well, we all wish they had, and with all the problems with guns in American last year we might have thought they would... but they didn't.

Let's give her a second chance. Most people would be able to pick a few of the winners at the Academy Awards, right? Wrong: "Expect an upset at the Academy Awards: Bradley Cooper for best actor over Daniel Day Lewis. Sally Field for best actress. Lincoln for best picture and Quentin Tarantino for best director." Best actor: wrong, best actress: wrong, best picture: wrong, best director: wrong. I could have done better than that and I hardly watch movies and certainly don't claim special powers!

Nikki, "Psychic to the Stars", claimed great success in 2012 (after the event, of course) so what about last year? Here's the first part of her rather alarming list: "A fire and explosion at a subway in New York City kills many. [Don't remember that] A chemical attack on the United States. [Don't think so] Another cruise ship breaks in half. [No] Another Super Storm like Sandy hitting the USA, Canada and Europe. [What! All three? That's a big storm!] Nuclear attack on New York. [Maybe we just didn't notice] A huge earthquake in the Caribbean. [Not this year] Cuba and Puerto Rico becoming part of the USA. [What?] A weather satellite will come crashing into a building. [No]" Another total failure!

Here's some predictions from some clown called Sidney Friedman, who claims 71% accuracy. This one sounded interesting: "Apple announces and releases a mini iPhone geared toward children and also under-served populations around the world. Apple finally launches a smart TV." Well maybe the iPhone 5C could be the "mini iPhone" but it's the same size as other iPhones although it is cheaper. As for the smart TV... no.

And another tech related prediction from him: "In spite of negative reviews and a shaky launch, Windows 8 sees excellent signs of catching on." Well that's a good guess and it's hard to say exactly what "excellent signs" might really mean, but when I Google "Windows 8 adoption rate" I get a whole pile of negative news.

So really these people are a joke. Why anyone would take psychics seriously is just incomprehensible. In my next blog entry I will list some future predictions from a true visionary, just to show that it is possible using knowledge and intelligence, not fake psychic abilities!

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