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Unpopular Leaders

Entry 2198, on 2022-01-20 at 14:42:33 (Rating 3, Politics)

US president, Joe Biden's, popularity is sinking lower with every poll. British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is facing increasing demands that he resign. Even the great and much loved Saint Jacinda of New Zealand is facing significant resistance to her policies. So, what's going on here?

It seems that voters can't wait to remove one leader - for example Donald Trump in the US - and replace them, but then find the replacement is no better - and often even worse - than the person they replaced! With a few exceptions, this is the case for every leader in democratic countries. No one party stays in power for long. But why does this happen so often?

Well, it seems to me that there is a very simple explanation: that is that almost all leaders are terrible people and, while it sometimes takes a few years, eventually voters will realise that and want someone else instead.

In addition, when the left fails to achieve what they promised, people might switch to the right only to realise they are no more capable, and fail just as badly - although often in a different way - resulting in a switch back to the left again as the cycle repeats.

Of course, there are some complicating factors. Some leaders do a good enough job (or the alternatives are so terrible in comparison) that they do stay in power for longer than most others. Many people vote for a party based on an historical preference, and the ability of that party's members is of little consequence. Others just like a change, irrespective of how competent the existing government is. And many leaders, who enter power with the best intentions, eventually become incompetent, arrogant, corrupt, or all three!

But in general I believe that all leaders are just useless and that it takes a few years for that to become apparent, and result in them being swapped for an alternative. This results in a simple swap back and forwards in a two party state (like the US) generally involving swings to the left, then the right, then back again. It becomes more complex in countries with electoral systems which generally create coalitions, like Germany, New Zealand, etc, but the basic principle is the same.

But why are our political leaders so useless? I have offered an opinion on this several times, and generally come to the conclusion that people who are arrogant enough to think that they can lead a country are usually completely delusional about their abilities. Anyone more realistic about the complexity of the job and their potential to do it, would not want to be a leader. It's basically the Dunning-Kruger Effect in action: most leaders are too incompetent to appreciate their own incompetence!

In a democratic country the cycle of swapping leaders will continue as one disappointment leads to another, and all that can really be hoped for is a slightly more competent leader who might do a half-decent job for a few electoral cycles and make the country a better place.

As I have said in past posts, the world is gradually getting better, and politics must be a part of that trend, so maybe things aren't as bad as I am suggesting here, but so many changes made by one government turn out badly, and need to be replaced by the next leadership, that I do wonder whether there might be a better way.

But again as I have said before, it might be that the current democratic systems commonly used around the world might be the best option, despite their deficiencies. When I am in a more extreme libertarian mood I think we would be better without leaders at all, and we could make decisions through some sort of direct democratic system, but many people might not want to engage in that responsibility (or effort) and might prefer being told what to do; there are certainly plenty of people in that category during the COVID crisis.

So in summary, I think conventional democracies work OK. I do prefer proportional systems like we have in New Zealand, because they usually eliminate the old model where two parties swap control every few years, although I realise there are disadvantages too.

But, while we accept democracy, we should also be cynical of it. We should realise that almost every government will be fairly incompetent, and very likely become corrupt and arrogant after a few years, requiring them to be replaced and start the cycle again. We should also realise that there are elements in both left and right politics which balance each other and neither is necessarily superior to the other. And, most importantly, people should get past the idea of supporting one party automatically. They should look at the situation at each election in a rational way and make a decision on how to vote then.

It seems that all leaders will become unpopular eventually, and that's the way it should be.

Comment 1 (7037) by Anonymous on 2022-01-28 at 21:53:40:

"that is that almost all leaders are terrible people and, while it sometimes takes a few years, eventually voters will realise that and want someone else instead "

Well, you really do have a chip on your shoulder regarding "leaders" don't you... (1) "Leaders" generally become more unpopular over time - not necessarily anything to do with what they do or don't do. (2) Perhaps people should be more careful about who they vote for, or be a bit more realistic when voting for the "shiny, new leader"...

Comment 2 (7038) by OJB on 2022-01-28 at 21:54:08:

Yes, I do have a bit of an issue with "leaders", mainly because I don't want to be lead by anybody, and least of all by the sorts of people who often get into positions of leadership. I think it is a genuine issue that we should be thinking about.

I agree that leaders get less popular over time, but surely that, at least partly, is because of deficiencies on their part. Generally the deficiency is not doing what they said they would, either because they can't (and probably never could) or just don't want to (and again, probably never did).

I also totally agree that people should be more careful about who they vote for, and mentioned that in the original post.

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