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Beginning of the End

Entry 307, on 2006-03-31 at 13:55:45 (Rating 2, Computers)

I've never liked Microsoft very much, so its always depressing to see them succeed despite the fact they produce average products and often use dirty business tactics. Occasionally I think I detect weaknesses in Microsoft's performance, and a year ago I predicted that Microsoft would gradually lose its dominance and become just another company. Not many people believed me at the time.

But recently it has seemed slightly more realistic to predict this as a genuine possibility. One reason is the interest many PC users have shown now that Apple are using the Intel processor. This interested probably won't be fully realised until Windows is running more reliably and is easier to install on a Mac, but it will happen soon, I'm sure.

Another reason is the time Microsoft are spending trying to get their new OS, Vista, ready. There have been many delays and many features dropped to try to speed up the release. Now we have Microsoft managers being fired, developers being moved from the Xbox team, Microsoft employees blogging about the mess the Vista release is in, and suggestions 60% of the code needs to be rewritten! It almost sounds like they are in a bit of a panic. Maybe this is the first genuine sign of the beginning of the end for Microsoft.

I'm not suggesting Windows will disappear in a year, or 5, or even 10 years. Maybe it will never disappear at all, but it will become just another OS amongst many (well 3 actually: Mac OS X, Linux, and Windows), I think.

The main reason Vista is so hard to improve is the "baggage" of older system compatibility Microsoft insists on retaining in new versions. This is a strength, because new Windows users can use older programs, but it is a great weakness because it compromises the speed, simplicity, and security of modern versions of Windows.

Apple made the hard decision to completely change the OS when they moved from 9 to X, and have completely changed the CPU they use twice (from 68000 to PowerPC, and now from PowerPC to Intel). This has allowed them to create a much better basic system than Microsoft. Maybe this is why Apple have done 5 major revisions of their OS in the time Microsoft have done none.

So there's my prediction. Microsoft are on the way out as the dominant company in personal computing. I don't think we''l see another take over in a similar position. I hope in future we will have an environment where many companies can thrive and drive genuine innovation in computing.

Comment 1 (187) by Sean on 2006-04-01 at 18:36:54:

I wish I could agree with you but when Microsoft has made inroads into the education system in New Zealand by creating a lucrative licensing agreement we are teaching a whole new generation of users to be more comfortable with one particular operating system.

Many teachers are digital immigrants and as such are happy to blindly follow along with Microsoft operating systems as they are installed across their networks. The name Linux brings blank stares from the majority of people I work with. Children often think that PowerPoint, Word and Excel are product types rather than brandnames.

Now, when Vista is released it will be installed on the computers of our schools and faults or not it will become the operating system of choice for the majority of non critical computer users in New Zealand.

Comment 2 (188) by OJB on 2006-04-03 at 10:05:13:

You're right that Microsoft has made progress in education, but this is turning around a bit in the US now, and hopefully that will happen here in NZ as well. And calling teachers "digital immigrants" is very nice, I would prefer "digital idiots" in most cases!

Will Vista be installed on computers in our schools? I'm sure it will be bundled with many new machines, but it won't be attractive for existing PCs. Don't expect things to happen quickly. I'm just talking about long term trends here.

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