Entry 2254, on 2023-01-05 at 11:15:46 (Rating 3, Comments)
They say that making predictions is difficult, especially about the future, but since we are at the beginning of the year, I think it is time for me to predict what will happen in 2023. So here it is...
In New Zealand politics...
I think the current government will continue down its current path, and continue to lose support as a result. They will inevitably be defeated at the election near the end of this year, and a so-called center-right group will take over.
I don't think that new government will be hugely better than the one we currently have, but that is difficult to judge right now, because the National opposition are so intent on doing nothing wrong and avoiding saying anything controversial, that we really cannot see what their real intentions are.
Obviously the agenda of the center-right will be considerably less politically correct than what we have now, but I think this will still be a problem. The only real hope is that the libertarian Act party might have some influence over National, which will obviously be the major party in the new government, and this might result ina bit more common sense instead of the woke ideology we have now.
In International politics...
The most constant thing in politics is change. Most modern countries alternate between leadership with more left, then a more right orientation. What these two things mean varies from one country to another. Many would say that the "left" in the US, for example, is to the right of the "right" in many more progressive countries (like New Zealand) but that really depends on how these tendencies are viewed and in what particular part of politics (social, economic, legal) you are looking at.
So the Conservatives in the UK will likely continue to become less popular where the Democrats in the US will also lose popularity. Left switches to right and vice versa. People eventually understand that neither side is particularly good, and it's mainly in the details that they differ.
COVID...
The pandemic is not going away any time soon. It will follow the path of previous events of this sort and the virus will continue to mutate and occasionally cause major outbreaks while the long-term trend will be for it to become less of a risk and just part of every day life.
The days of major lockdowns, and other interventions, are gone, and anything of this type which might be introduced int he future would only be in response to a massive threat from a truly dangerous mutation, which as I said above, I don't think will happen.
Here in New Zealand, the infection and death rate is far higher now, and we have no major restrictions in place, than it was when we were in the middle of lockdowns. You do have to wonder whether those lockdowns were a bit of an over-reaction. Over the long term, countries, states, etc who didn't do hard lockdowns have done about as well as those who did, so what was the point?
Of course, I know there was a point, and you might say that things would have been worse if nothing had been done. Well I'm not advocating for nothing, just a more targeted approach, as some health professionals suggested at the time.
Climate Change...
As I have said before, I think climate change is real, but I don't agree with the more extreme predictions of disaster, I don't agree with many of the political responses, and I don't agree with the superficial message portrayed by many activist individuals and groups.
So extreme weather events will continue to increase, and there will be the usual disasters with wildfires in California and southern Europe, floods in India, etc. And the overall death rate from disasters will continue to fall. Yes, I said fall, because that's what the stats actually show.
And nothing of any consequence will be done about it, because climate change meetings and actions are more about virtue signalling than they are about doing anything useful. As the global economic situation continues to be a problem, climate change will be given less emphasis in politics, as it probably should be.
Society...
Ideas tend to go in cycles, just like politics does, as I have already noted. The current nonsense around woke politics has peaked and people are so sick of it now I think the political, media, and educational institutions pushing it will be largely ignored and their influence will wane.
The major trendy political pressure groups, such as MeToo and BLM are losing relevance because more people are seeing the hypocrisy inherent in them all. I think these groups all began with good intentions, and there are issues there to be resolved, but they have out-lived their usefulness, and they now are more of a problem than a help, even for the groups they purport to represent.
So I think - and hope - we see some return of balance to supporting the traditional Western ideals of true liberalism, real democracy, and support for the higher ideals that some would want us to abandon.
Science...
It looks like we are now genuinely getting close to the two major scientific discoveries we have all been promised for many years now: fusion power and artificial intelligence. If these two technologies could be perfected we really woud have solved, directly and indirectly, the most important problems in history.
Fusion would give us virtually unlimited amounts of clean, safe, cheap energy, which might make some real difference to the problem of climate change and other environmental problems, as well as allowing a higher standard of living for everyone. And artificial intelligence would give us everything else, especially when it was combined with robotics.
I'm not saying either of these technologies will be perfected and used commercially this year, but we will continue to see major progress in both of these fields, and finally that promise of having the technology perfected in the next 5 to 10 years might actually happen.
Space exploration is undergoing a renaissance currently and I expect this to continue, which is great. Of course, the anti-space luddites will continue to make their inane noises about spending money on this planet instead, but they will largely be ignored.
Technology...
I'm a big fan of technology so you might think this would be the area I am most certain about, but no, I'm really not sure what the "next big thing" will actually be.
The indications for a few years now are that virtual reality will be it, but I'm not so sure. There have been promising technologies like this in the past which have gone nowhere. What is possible in theory and practical in reality are two different things, and it is difficult to tell what might be the next development will be which becomes popular.
In the past smart phones, tablets, smart watches, and digital assistants were all denigrated by some sections of society who should have known better. Now we all use these every day... well I do anyway! So VR will continue to develop and will be at least an important niche product. I'm not so sure it will become mainstream.
Artificial intelligence will be used more this year, in common consumer products, transport, and the internet.
When I asked an AI (ChatGPT) what would happen this year (a sort of meta-question in relation ro AI) here's what it said: "It is not possible for me to predict with certainty what major new trends will emerge in 2023, as I am an artificial intelligence and do not have access to current information or the ability to browse the web. However, I can tell you about some general trends that have been observed in the past, such as the increasing adoption of technology in various fields, the increasing importance of sustainability and environmental protection, and the ongoing developments in fields such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology. These trends may continue in the future and potentially evolve or give rise to new trends in 2023 and beyond."
Yeah, a fairly generic answer there, but it does broadly agree with mine, so I'll accept it!
Comment 1 by Anonymous on 2023-01-09 at 12:22:50:
Why don't you just ask ChatGPT to write the whole blog post for you? It would save a lot of time and it might make sense for a change!
Comment 2 by OJB on 2023-01-09 at 13:51:59:
Actually, that's quite a good idea. I might try that in future. Not the next post, but one in the future, so that no one is expecting it. Then we'll see how much sense it makes!
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