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Past Peak Apple

Entry 1571, on 2013-09-12 at 13:00:16 (Rating 2, Computers)

About a month back I read an article titled "Are We Past Peak Apple?" which suggested that we shouldn't expect any major new innovations from Apple because the products they sell are already mature. For example, the ideal form factor and feature set has already been established for the smartphone: look at what the current iPhone and Android smartphones can do now. What more can be reasonably done? And the same applies to the tablet (although it is not quite as mature), the desktop computer, and the laptop.

So none of these devices have changed much for years. In most cases Apple was responsible for defining what these products should be like even though they didn't create them originally. But the original designs of all of these products was truly terrible: early smartphones were basically useless, tablets were clumsy, and computers were extremely unfriendly (I know, I tried to use them all). It was the iPhone, iPad, and Mac which transformed these into usable products, and after that companies like Microsoft and Google just copied.

Yesterday Apple announced the latest iterations of the iPhone: the iPhone 5C and 5S. Apple say they are still innovative (after the loss of Steve Jobs) so what have we got? A cheap, colourful phone which is basically identical to the iPhone 5 which has been around for a year, and a new phone almost identical to the old one except for having a faster processor, a better camera (but with the same number od pixels) and a fingerprint security system.

It's not really all that impressive, is it? Despite being an Apple fan I will admit, it isn't. But the Samsung Galaxy S4 wasn't impressive either and neither was any other smartphone designed in the last few years. The fact is the smartphone has got to the point where there really isn't anything truly significant which can be added or changed any more.

I should clarify a point here: these phones are impressive in many ways. The performance, storage capacity, and extra components (such as camera, GPS, motion sensor, compass, multiple wireless systems, sensors such as gyros, etc) are literally incredible. Just a few years ago it would have been impossible to believe that a device could do all this and still get good battery life, be compact, and not cost ten times what they actually do.

So when I say the new phones are't impressive I mean the amount of progress shown in the latest versions over the previous model isn't that great. There is no real innovation, no real revolutionary change. It has go to the point where evolution has taken over, and that's exactly what we would expect.

So does that mean that we won't see anything genuinely innovative from Apple (and others) again? I think we will, but not in existing product categories. The stage is set now for someone to create a good wearable digital device. There have been a few attempts already: Google Glass, the Pebble watch, etc, but these aren't really what people want. It's time for Apple to do what they have done before: to make a new wearable device (let's call it an iWatch) and show everyone else how it should be done.

I still think we are past peak Apple (and peak Google, Microsoft, Samsung, etc) because most of the important digital products have been already optimised to a high level, but there will be more breakthroughs in the future, just at a slower rate than in the past.

Comment 1 (3625) by Anonymous on 2013-09-12 at 13:31:19: OMG, what a small one!

Comment 2 (3626) by OJB on 2013-09-12 at 14:34:08:

Hey, watch it! ... oh, you mean the blog entry. Yes, trying to avoid the "losing the will to live" effect half way through!

Comment 3 (3627) by AHB on 2013-09-12 at 16:16:09:

I agree that the innovation has to come from a new sector but the problem is that the person who found those products for Apple is dead and the new leader is a supply chain guy.

Comment 4 (3628) by OJB on 2013-09-12 at 20:07:56:

Well you might have a point except Apple assures us that this time (unlike the last time Steve was lost from the company) the Apple culture will be maintained and people like Jony Ive will keep control of many aspects of the design of new devices. I hope this means they won't fall into the "corporate mentality" like last time.

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