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Anomaly Hunting

Entry 2342, on 2024-05-13 at 15:02:16 (Rating 2, Skepticism)

I like to listen to podcasts on many different subjects. Some of the more controversial podcasts, like the Joe Rogan Experience and Triggernometry, usually have guests which I basically agree with, but sometimes there might be someone who I think is talking BS.

So what do I do? Well, a lot of people would just skip those episodes and move on, but I listen to them anyway. Sometimes the process can be quite "painful", because I know the person is presenting false or misleading information, and I have to force myself to listen to the end.

Why would I do that if I have the choice? Well, for three reasons mainly. First, I think it is important to listen to material which I might disagree with just in case the person makes some good points and I might change my mind. Second, knowing my opponents' arguments makes it easier to refute them in debates. And third, I criticise other people for shutting down speakers they disagree with and it would be quite hypocritical to refuse to listen to opposing views myself!

I recently listened to 2 podcasts which I knew I would have issues with before even listening to them, but did anyway. They were both Joe Rogan Experience episodes so they were quite a commitment: one was over 3 hours and the other just under 4 and a half! The JRE is well known for it's "long form" material which is one of the reasons it is so much better than the superficial "sound bites" we get in the mainstream media.

The first featured Bart Sibrel on the subject of the Moon Hoax. This is the belief, or conspiracy theory if you prefer (remember not all conspiracies are false), that the Moon landings were falsified by NASA for propaganda purposes and we have never landed people on the Moon.

The second was with Graham Hancock, and "alternative archaeologist" who believes that many ancient civilisations acquired their knowledge from an older, advanced culture which was wiped out by a global catastrophe.

Any non-expert listening to these people might find their arguments quite convincing. I don't really think of myself as an expert, but I probably know more than average because I have been an amateur astronomer for about 50 years and did an archaeology paper at university (many years ago, and I've probably forgotten it all, but at least I have a few clues about how archaeology works).

So after 7 and a half hours of listening to this material, what were my conclusions? Well, first I should say I think they are basically wrong. There might be some small elements of their beliefs which have some merit, but their overall conclusions are false. My current conclusions are that the Moon landings were real, and that there was no advanced global culture which pre-dated the Egyptians. But I do think these people both sounded pretty intelligent and rational. The problem is they have succumbed to some common logical fallacies: anomaly hunting, selective fact seeking, and personal incredulity.

If you look hard enough, especially with an existing idea of what you want to prove, you can find anomalies in any story which make it look suspicious. There are dozens of these which people think they have discovered regarding the Apollo missions: why did the flag wave, how did the astronauts get through the radiation belts surrounding the Earth, how did they get to the Moon with such simple computer equipment, and many more. I actually have a web page on my site listing and answering these questions.

And the archaeology claims were similar. How did the Egyptians get the pyramids aligned "perfectly" with the poles? Why do various calculations, involving numbers which arguably have some significance in astronomy, map the size of the pyramids onto the size of the Earth? Why does the Sphinx point directly at the constellation Leo at the equinox if you assume it was built much earlier than is generally accepted?

Then you go on to selective fact checking. The radiation belts were a known hazard but the dose was considered safe as long as the Sun didn't become too active. Ignored. The calculations for basic orbital trajectories is actually surprisingly simple, plus the astronauts took over when the computers were not capable enough. Ignored. By carefully selecting numbers you can make an association between any building and apparently significant alignments. Ignored.

And just because a person finds it hard to accept that something happened a certain way doesn't mean it didn't. It might mean that they didn't look at it carefully enough, or didn't give the people involved sufficient credit. The Saturn V rocket was a miracle of engineering and took many thousands of people many years to perfect. Why is it hard to believe that it was not capable of its original purpose after all that effort was put into building it? And why would we doubt the ingenuity of the ancient Egyptians in building in a particular way, especially when there is actually a small error in their so-called "perfect" alignment?

It's not impossible that the Moon missions were faked, but that fakery could easily have required more effort than the actual mission! For example, the films of the lunar rover driving on the Moon would have been almost impossible to fake given the computer technology at the time. Ironically, it is far easier to calculate a course to the Moon than it is too fake low gravity and zero atmosphere in a movie using old computers.

And it's not impossible that there was an advanced civilisation which pre-dates those that archaeology currently accepts. But if I had a choice between what is currently believed by the majority of experts and what a dedicated but untrained amateur thinks, then I'll go with the professionals.

As regular readers know, I don't always accept the consensus view, and have issues with the official line on climate change and lockdowns, but in general the official view is usually right. Conspiracies happen, but the default should be to reject them unless there are very good reasons not to.

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