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State of the World

Entry 2307, on 2023-12-14 at 13:24:51 (Rating 3, News)

It's getting towards the end of the year, so maybe it's time for another "state of the world" update, where I can briefly comment on some of the events and trends we see around the world, with a local (New Zealand) emphasis.

First, the big picture. What sort of general state is the world in? Well, despite the many predictions of imminent doom, and the emphasis on the bad aspects of the world we see in the media, I think we live at a good time in history.

With a few notable exceptions, the world is quite peaceful. We hear a lot about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but those aren't too significant in the greater scheme of things. I haven't got up to date data on this, but violent death data has been steadily trending down, and is historically low during similar times in the recent past.

Poverty is trending down, lifespan is trending up, and diseases are slowly being reduced. Things are far from perfect, but anyone who thinks they would rather live in the past is probably ignoring many facts that they should be cognisant of.

But what about climate change, I hear you say. Isn't that going to mean the end of the world in the next few decades? Well, no. Of course not. The effects of climate change will be annoying, but we can cope with them, just like we have coped with every other "existential crisis" we have faced in the past.

Think about it: overpopulation, mass starvation, global cooling, the destruction of natural habitats have all come to nothing, or at least we have adapted to their effects, which were far less severe than many predicted. We should remain aware of climate change and move away from fossil fuels where it is practical, but the hysteria we hear from the media and activists is nonsense.

What about the general direction of politics? Well, I think the preference for woke, socialist oriented governments has peaked, and we are heading back to more moderate politics. Here in New Zealand we have a center-right government now, after people finally realised that you can't vote based on emotion.

Of course, there are still plenty of nutty leftist extremists around - just look at the Maori Party and the Greens - but it will be a while before their idiocy will have any major part in politics again. At least I hope so!

We do have to be aware of the danger of politics lurching into nutty right-wing ideology, of course, because things do tend to swing from one extreme to the other, but I don't think that is an immediate issue.

I have commented on the war in Gaza in the past, but maybe I should provide an update here. Clearly Hamas wanted to provoke Israel into a response where they might become the object of international condemnation, and it is impossible to fully eliminate any terrorist organisation, so you could make a case to say Israel is acting badly both morally and practically. But Israel is doing what they really have to. I can't see any alternative, except for trying a bit harder to reduce civilian casualties.

Those who recommend a negotiated settlement probably aren't taking the nature of terrorist organisations fully into account. Remember that the October 7 attack was in the middle of a negotiated ceasefire. Who would think that any future negotiations would be taken more seriously? Hamas don't want a Palestinian state unless it first eliminates Israel... from the river to the sea.

The war in Ukraine is a bit more difficult. There, the "bad guys" (Russia) are certainly struggling, but Ukraine can only win if it gets continued support from the West. I think that will happen, because the West can't let Putin win, but it's going to be messy, and won't be over in the immediate future.

What about technology? Well, there are only three things that really matter: nuclear fusion, space technology, and artificial intelligence.

Imagine a future where there is practically limitless energy, no need for fossil fuels, and everyone can live cheaply and well. With fusion (and maybe miniature fission) power production that is possible. Throw enough cheap energy at many problems and they can be solved.

We need to get off this planet. I don't mean everyone should live in space or on other planets, but we need to reinvigorate the spirit of exploration we have had in the past. We also need to guard against human extinction caused by catastrophic events here, and I don't mean climate change! For this we need a successful space program. Thankfully, we have Elon Musk for that.

Advanced data processing can solve many problems, such as discovering the origin of and cures for disease, creating new technologies, and learning more about the most basic laws of the universe. It's not impossible for humans to do this, but with really advanced artificial intelligence, progress can be greatly accelerated, and it might solve problems humans would never solve by ourselves.

There is good progress on all three of those areas in tech, but we're not quite there yet on any of them. Further research is indicated!

When Lord Kelvin said he thought all the big questions in science had already been answered, he was terribly wrong. This was shortly before two new revolutionary theories were released: relativity and quantum physics.

While our knowledge of the universe through science is pretty impressive, because we can calculate physics results really accurately using current theories, anyone who thinks that further revolutions aren't likely is probably being as naive as Kelvin.

That ultimate theory encompassing relativity and quantum theory still doesn't exist, after a hundred years of trying, so that's a problem. We really need to find out what dark matter and dark energy are. And here are a few others, although I could list many more: What came before the Big Bang? Why do we move forwards in time? Why does space have three dimensions? Is the universe infinite or just very big?

So, despite the hysteria which we see in the media and from certain sections of society, I think the world is in a pretty good place. We need to be careful not to reject the aspects of culture, especially Western culture, which have served us so well. Stop looking at the bad aspects of history and look ahead instead. The world isn't perfect, but it is OK!

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